Understanding forecast accuracy is crucial for planning successful Northern Lights viewing trips. While NOAA provides reliable space weather forecasts, it's important to understand their limitations and how to interpret probability values effectively.
Aurora forecasts are based on solar wind data, geomagnetic activity models, and historical patterns. Short-term forecasts (24-48 hours) are generally more reliable than longer-term predictions. Real-time monitoring of current conditions often provides the most accurate assessment of immediate viewing opportunities.
CHECK CURRENT FORECASTReal-time solar wind data provides reliable predictions. Accuracy typically 70-85% for geomagnetic activity forecasts.
Forecasts based on solar wind propagation models. Accuracy decreases to 50-70% as uncertainty increases.
Long-term forecasts show general trends but become less reliable. Useful for planning but not definitive predictions.
Aurora probability percentages indicate the likelihood of visible aurora, not intensity. Even 30-40% probability can produce visible displays in Alaska, especially in northern regions.
Space weather forecasts don't account for local cloud cover. Always check local weather forecasts in addition to aurora predictions. Clear skies are essential for viewing.
Current Kp values and solar wind conditions provide the most accurate immediate assessment. Monitor real-time data for the best viewing opportunities, especially during active periods.